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INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIST
Banking
Indian banking sector has performed better than its last year’s record of performance, based on the preliminary data available. It would be too early to make a thorough assessment of its performance in various areas. But if the third quarter results are considered an indication, it may not be wrong to assume that the banks have fared well...

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Cover story
Those were very different times, the late 1960s when we launched IE: the economy then was in a pretty bad shape. After successive droughts during 1965-67 and a massive devaluation of the rupee in 1966, planning over five years was given a holiday and the country switched to planning annually for three years till 1969...

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Analysis
THE TURMOILS in financial markets had quickly spread to Europe where some banks had to write- off losses in leveraged products though the damage is not as widespread as in USA. Real economy is not insulated from the ongoing turbulence but growth in European Union and

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Report

Is there a level playing field between foreign multinationals and Indian corporates particularly when it comes to investments in the infrastructure sector?..

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The global scene

Our top ten list

 
Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto

When US sneezes, world catches a cold

The big economic question in 2007 - is the US economy in long lasting trouble with a recession?
Nothing seems to be going right for the world's biggest economy - the dollar seems to be losing value against every major (and several other) currency, the housing crisis saw the perfect storm of foreclosures and depressed property values, the markets took a tumble thanks to credit woes and scale of fiscal deficits.

The most damaging among these has been the surge in mortgage defaults among U.S. home buyers because of the sub-prime loan exposure. Thanks to home prices falling 7.6 per cent between June and September 2007, more than $1.25 trillion was lost in property values in 2007, and in some overheated communities in cities in California and Florida, 1 out of every 75 homes went into foreclosure.

Even heavyweight financial firms like Merrill Lynch and Citibank (whose CEOs were soon ousted) were caught with their pants down (thanks to their exposure to this high risk segment).

Wild dance of global stock markets

2007 saw some of the most drastic shifts in stock market indices worldwide. The earliest signs of trouble came when the stock market in China plunged nearly 9 per cent in one day and that led to a worldwide reaction - including the Dow Jones industrial average in the US falling by 416 points, or 3.3 per cent in a single day. All the earlier drops were blamed on the anxiety surrounding the US economy and subsequently, the reasons expanded to include currency valuations, housing crisis (see separate piece on this later in this article), etc. which led the US Federal Reserve (similar to the Reserve Bank of India) to pump $72 billion into the U.S. financial system over two days to steady the volatile markets that plummeted.

India-US Accord on civilian nuclear power

The nuclear agreement in 2007 between India and the United States will be seen as one of those decisive moments in international politics when two big powers who have been trying to be friends for a long time, finally decided to cross the point of no return. It is sad that political pressures in our country throw various wrenches in this wheel of progress but overall, this agreement should be among the largest influencers of not only India's energy needs but also its place on the world's stage.

This news was even more interesting given North Korea's shutting down its weapons-making nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, as part of an agreement reached earlier in the year and because of US-led pressure.

Bhutto's assassination and transfer of power in Pakistan

Former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto's assassination caps a year of widespread unrest in Pakistan. In general, it was a very difficult period for the country that saw protests against civil liberties, demonstrations against Musharraf and his policies, challenges to the electoral process, etc. All of these have also rattled the west - especially the US which put so much of its mouth and money on backing Musharraf only to realize that it needs new friends in Pakistan. Price of oil almost doubles
Other transitions were more peaceful - Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair as Britain's prime minister (after waiting for almost 10 years) inheriting a Labour government trailing in many polls because of Iraq and needing to win back voters if it is to secure a fourth consecutive term. Despite the concerns around how democratic this process really was, another significant transfer of power was in Russia - with Vladimir Putin turning over the reins of the presidency to Dmitri Medvedev.

Price of oil almost doubles - and affects almost every aspect of life

Global economic development and increased demand for energy continued to put pressure on energy prices and 2007 saw the biggest increases in oil prices in history - from around $50-60 per barrel in early 2007 to almost $100 by year-end. Global economic development and increased demand for energy continued to put pressure on energy prices. Over the next generation, energy demands are expected to rise by about 50 per cent, from 85 million barrels a day in 2007 to about 116 million barrels a day in 2030. This put severe pressure on costs - from penny pinching in personal budgets and cost-pressures on airlines to higher utility bills and elimination of several social programmes.

US Presidential election drama

It started with 20 candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties (not including the recent addition of the Green Party candidate Ralph Nader). In a Presidential campaign that is expected to top $1 billion in spending, 3 viable candidates remain - Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the Democratic side and John McCain on the Republican side.
The campaigning was also influenced by the ever-changing media exposures. In previous elections candidates had regularly participated in debates on TV and / or in front of an audience. 2007 saw the first ever traditional media+new media debate - with the CNN-YouTube presidential debate. In this, Republicans and Democrats each held debates in which questions came primarily from YouTube viewer submitted videos.
2007 also started with Democrats in the US taking control of both houses of Congress for the first time since 1994. California Democrat Nancy Pelosi, a grandmother now, who entered politics after her youngest child entered high school, became the first woman Speaker of the House.

iPhone elevates the humdrum cell phone to a new level

It was one of the biggest years for the already successful Apple. The iPhone brought a new level of excitement to the cell phone world that wasn't witnessed in several years. Seamlessly bridging the features of a phone, music player and wireless internet device, the iPhone was the must-have gadget of the year (and still is for many).

iPhone In 2007, there were other big numbers on the Apple front. It became the third largest retailer of music in the U.S. with over a 10 per cent market share. The company has sold more than 3 billion songs since the launch of its iTunes music store and by end of last year, sold more than 100 million plus iPods.

Even lead paint is "Made in China" (sic)

China's hub as the world's manufacturer took a beating in 2007 thanks to health and safety concerns across several products. The world's biggest toy company - Mattel - was forced to recall more than 21 million toys made in China because of lead paint in them. This followed recalls from other manufacturers - including 60 million cases of pet food, shrimp and even toothpaste! Given the deep entrenchment of Chinese goods in the US economy, there were several debates over the trade-off between cheap prices and quality. Political angles also brought in the issue of moving manufacturing away from the US and into markets like China where quality control is more difficult.

The EU expands - again

2007 marked the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome and the founding of the European Union and the year saw former Communist countries - Romania and Bulgaria–becoming the 26th and 27th countries in the Union. These countries bring the total EU population to almost 490 million and a large economic market that any product marketer covets.

The Euro, designed to bring together the EU both politically and economically, has steadily appreciated against the US dollar in 2007. This fact, coupled with the increase in holdings of the Euro in recent years and the expansion of the EU territory, adds credence to some opinions that the Euro could become the main world reserve currency.

India and China's rise in the top 10 lists

The two Asian powerhouses were on a run in 2007 with success both on the corporate and individual fronts. With its IPO in 2007, PetroChina became the world's first trillion-dollar company, tripling its share price on the first day it was traded on the Shanghai stock market. China now has five of the world's 10 most valuable companies.
On the personal wealth side, India was the country with the largest number of billionaires in the Forbes Top 10. Lakshmi Mittal, Mukesh Ambani, Anil Ambani and DLF realty head K P Singh - were in this exclusive club for 2007 against just one (Mittal) a year ago. India also retained its position as the top source of billionaires in Asia with 53 people that have a combined net worth of $340.9 billion.

And there it is - the ten news items / events for 2007 globally I thought impacted people and economies to a large extent. 2008 has started out with many continued concerns around the global economy and India's continued high growth rates and it remains to be seen what kind of a roller coaster ride is in store for the rest of the year.

 

-V Bala Swaminathan from Chicago

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