Barack Obama becomes the first minority / black President of the United States.
It was to be the year that history was going to be made - either the first African American was going to be President of the United States or the honour was going to go to the first woman. It turned out to be the former, with Barack Obama orating and charming his way to the White House. Eight years before he became President, he couldn't even get a ticket to the Democratic convention. Four years ago, he was invited to give a speech - one that elevated his profile and launched his run.
He seemed to energize an entire nation - weary from 8 years of deficits and wars - even through the final victory margin was anything but thumping. Almost 2 million braced -2 degree (Celsius) weather to participate in the inaugural. It was the costliest election in US History in terms of campaigning and the youth movement and internet fund raising techniques took the game to a whole new level.
What a difference a year makes. By the end of 2009, the honeymoon was largely over. Nobel Prize notwithstanding, his biggest campaign promises (be it healthcare reform, pulling back troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, etc) all were significantly altered given the political and economic landscape.
The death of Michael Jackson
THE glories of our blood and state
Are shadows, not substantial things.
There is no armour against Fate.
Death lays his icy hand on kings.
Sceptre and Crown
Must tumble down
And in the dust be equal made
With the poor crookèd scythe and spade
Four hundred years ago, the poet James Shirley wrote this initial stanza as part of a poem called "Death the Leveller" about how everyone at some time drops dead - whether kings or peasants, rich or poor… The message was also that death smoothens over all the ups and downs in a person's life and somehow everyone after death is considered a noble soul whose missteps in life (if any) were always a sad series of unfortunate steps.
Michael Jackson could very well fit into this category. His 1982 album ‘Thriller’ sold more than 110 million copies, and remains the best-selling album ever. Several of his other albums were also global best-sellers. His brilliance as a singer and performer shot him to fame fast. Too fast in fact that it hastened his demise from his perch on top of the entertainment world to becoming a caricature and being saddled with lawsuits - be if for his changing appearances to accusations of child molestation.
After more than a decade and a half, he was finally starting to turn his life around with what was considered to be the biggest comeback tour ever. It was to be a sold out affair in the US and Europe and one that was supposed to put an end to his financially fragile, mobile world.
Then it happened. He died quickly and suddenly in June 2009 - a death now termed a homicide and has his personal physician under a cloud for his administering sleep inducing drugs. He was again talked about for his singing, not his plastic surgeries. More than 31 million people watched his funeral services on TV and entire cities were involved in the ceremonies. People that derided him in the past rushed to effuse praise about his ‘many accomplishments.’ And in death, he attained a status that had bypassed him for over a decade.
Constant reminders
on security and terrorist concerns
Security issues and terrorism issues, while markedly lower in 2009, nevertheless continued to be front and centre in the worry kaleidoscope. In India, it was clawing back from the Mumbai terror attacks in the previous year. In places like Afghanistan and Iran, it was the daily dose of suicide bombings and killings. In the aviation sector, it was one guy who managed to smuggle a small dose of explosives into a flight. It didn't even escape an army base in the US.
The world continues to grapple with the same security question - in a world where capital punishment is the highest form of punishment, how do you prevent someone from committing a crime when he is willing to die perpetrating one?
New forms of security breaches that make the whole notion of collateral damage laughable, has meant that security solutions have to be more pervasive / community wide. This has continued to accelerate things like additional inconvenience, privacy breaches and jumpy attitudes. Moreover, whether it is planning the cost of security for Olympic athletes or average airplane flier, the cost of security has risen to even more eye-popping levels and previously unheard of line items totalling hundreds of millions.
In all, the sad new reality seems to be just accepting that life is so fragile and how suddenly, more than ever, it's a cat and mouse game!
The year for (personal) ‘transgressions’
Bill Clinton exposed (pun intended) several years ago that smart people in power do really, really stupid things and the thing that is stupidest of them all is the belief that they can get away with it. 2009 saw several people that took that amnesia pill. And there seems to be no dearth of people who are lining up to have what they have built up come crashing down. It only lasts as long as they are able to hide their behaviour.
The wholesome, family-centric, privacy-loving image of Tiger Woods got shattered with a big golf driver. What started out as a small late night minor auto accident unraveled the carefully built up image of the world's best golfer - with more than a dozen women coming out with their personal tales of association with Tiger Woods. The scandal also has a huge financial impact on Woods, who is the world's biggest ‘billion dollar sportsperson’ thanks to his winnings and sponsorships as almost every major sponsor (except Nike) has pulled out of having Woods as part of their brand.
One wonders what the correlation is between politicians and running for US President. Apart from the Clinton example, in 2009, White House contenders Mark Sanford and John Edwards ended their political careers due to their extra marital affairs and the silly lengths they went to mask them. Add to the list several more senators and congressmen/women and one feels like cheating is almost a qualification for politicians.
The Indian example may not contain a lot of personal indiscretions but with a reported one-fourth of the Indian Parliament members facing criminal charges (including human trafficking, immigration rackets, embezzlement,rape and even murder), we have a long way to go before morals and ethics are upheld either by one self or by law.
Global economies come out - for the most -
from the worst recession in more than half a century
Economic recessions were officially declared to be over in most economies but macro-economic indicators took a while to translate into positive outcomes for the average person. In 2008, the industry lost a record $42.6 billion as the U.S. mortgage meltdown spread into a global financial crisis. A billion didn't seem a large enough number given trillion dollar stimulus packages (for everything from buying back old cars to readjusting mortgage and student loans) and the fact that most of the monies are debt financed only seems to add to the longer term worries for countries like the US. The United States led the advanced economies in poor fiscal management, over-leveraged debt and inadequate financial regulations and the newfound confidence of China, India and Brazil has bred expectations that their growing power will be accommodated within the international system.
Asian and South Asian economies seemed to have the smallest falls and the sharpest climbs in this recession roller coaster and seemed poised to record fundamental economic shifts in the world. The exuberance in India seems to be a world apart from the deep wounds sustained in the US, the bankruptcy in Dubai and the whole EU market concerns. It appears that we neither rode the irrational exuberance bandwagon with several major economies neither did we come crashing down as much. In hindsight, the slow-moving, political-reality-infested monetary policies in India became one of its biggest saviours.
Auto industry still was stuck in low gear or with a dead battery
One of the larger website devoted to analyzing the auto industry said it best: "the best thing that might be said about the year (2009) the auto industry - and an economically battered nation - is preparing to close: it probably can't get any worse."
The year 2009 brought two high-profile bankruptcies, billions of dollars in government bailouts and funding for Cash for Clunkers and thousands of lost jobs. Similar upheaval - though not as catastrophic as predicted - came to the tightly integrated supplier industry. Several historic brands (like Pontiac, Hummer and Saturn) were relegated to the archives. And those are just the major stories.
In the US, 2009 sales, at around 10,400,000 units, reflected a 21.3-per cent decline from that in 2008 and the industry's lowest sales figure since 1970. The landscape of the industry in the US also shifted dramatically - with domestic automakers collectively losing 7.3 per cent of market share in 2009, compared with a 41.8-per cent gain for South Korean makers, a 1.8 per cent gain for Japanese makers and a 7.7-per cent gain for European automakers.
Internationally, the auto industry faced significant changes with the emergence of the Chinese and Indian consumer, new manufacturers, the introduction of the Tata Nano, and a weakened U.S. consumer.
In India the automobile industry has been registering continuous and steep growth, especially sine 2000. Production of passenger vehicles increased from 723,330 in 2002-03 to 1,838,697 in 2008-09; of commercial vehicles from 203,697 to 417,126 and of two wheelers from 5.1 mn to 8.1 mn during this period. After the slowdown recorded last year that continued in the first half of the current year for commercial vehicles, the industry has rebounded to the earlier growth rate since October.
Green seems to be colour that can get most company balance sheets to black. After Toyota's runaway success with the Prius, almost every major manufacturer has plans for some kind of alternate power source - with the two biggest advances being made in hybrid systems and pure electric cars.
Swine Flu - health scare
A new strain of H1N1 influenza virus started innocuously in Mexico in April 2009. It took the World Health Organization (WHO) less than 2 months to call this a pandemic and by the end of 2009, more than 15,000 people (around 10,000 in the US alone) were supposedly killed by this ‘swine flu’ virus.
In an increasingly global and mobile world, health organizations and governments struggled to control the spread of this virus and throwing a combination of money and PR efforts in addressing this. At one time, worst case estimates predicted almost 40 per cent of the entire US population being affected and statements like these made it that much harder to separate the irrational fear from the actual danger.
For the first time, a developed country like the US was at the receiving end of travel advisories and suspicious glances and many countries started getting rid of many of their livestock and countries like Egypt ordered ALL pigs in the country slaughtered.
It appears that the worst is definitely over given the steep drop offs in infection rates but the concern remains for the next small variant that will cripple global commerce and societies again.
Technology grows up -
a lot more than just products or features
2009 seems to be the year the digital universe grew up. Almost none of the technologies was completely new but they truly brought in a lot more value – feature-wise or price-wise – to make it count. Apple continued to dominate the mobile phone business but 2009 saw the phone and the hardware taking a backseat to the applications and how they took advantage of the interface. Soon, it was all about the simplest things that could be done away from a PC - most of them for free or for under $2.
Global 'regular' mobile phone sales slowed down again but one segment continued to grow at a healthy 31 per cent over 2008 - the smart phone category, which includes phones like the iPhone and Blackberry. The iPhone app store saw its billionth download just 9 months after launch and the Blakberry was thrust into a PR spotlight by no less than Barack Obama swearing by it and wanting to be the first US President that has held a cell phone in office.
Social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter morphed and evolved into new modes of communicating with friends as also new journalism outlets. The former boasts of 300 million registered users and a valuation of over $10 billion and the latter boasts 5 billion tweets - the small 140-or-less character postings.
The other big technology push came from e-readers. Amazon.com jump-started this segment with a mobile reader called the Kindle - that allowed books and newspapers to be read electronically. Five million readers in 2009 saw the category really expand - thanks to Amazon.com's marketing efforts. Sony and the bookseller Barnes and Noble have gotten into this segment also and the market is expected to triple in 2010. The big question is whether these readers will help monetize the whole print journalism market like how the Apple iPod helped the music industry charge for songs against just free downloading.
Healthcare debate in the US - more talk, more disagreement, more dilution
Statistics on US healthcare costs are always grim - every year, for 30 years, costs have accelerated 2 per cent faster than the rest of the economy. Insurance bills account for many layoffs and cutbacks. America spends more on healthcare than on food. Medical debt accounted for almost two-thirds of personal bankruptcies. From 1997 to 2007, each person's health care bill increased 81 per cent. And that's not even mentioning the 47 million uninsured, and some more millions who were underinsured. The US already spends 16 per cent of its GDP on healthcare and the 'small inefficiencies' over the years have really added up.
Everyone agreed that change is needed, but differed on who should bring this about and who should manage it. The Obama administration decided to risk repeating history by proposing healthcare reform in 2009 but taxpayer anger at big government erupted at town-hall meetings. The concern was whether government had a role in running this as also the financial cost of doing so.
The House and the Senate worked on their own versions. Just when Obama thought he can pass something through with the Democratic Senate majority, things got a little more complicated with the Republicans winning a seat in Massachusetts and eating into the Democratic veto-free majority. The year ended in disappointment for those who were expecting true reform. In the end, political realities will ensure some passage of legislation but how close it is to the original ideals is yet to be seen.
Changing attitudes - thanks to the economic woes
One of the interesting happenings in 2009 is the whole reinvention of the human psyche. For countries and people accustomed to stock markets and real estate prices always going up, the economic collapse of 2008-09 was too sobering.
In lean times, no savings were too small. Common sense and frugality in people started showing up - whether it was buying smaller cars and homes or reducing debt and impulse purchases. Savings rates started to climb up and irrational exuberance started slowing down. The biggest retail store sales increases came from discount stores like Wal-Mart and Dollar Stores. Suddenly, frugal was chic and every person seemed less ashamed to confess that they watch their spending. How far people went for a deal was seen in a KFC promotion in the US for one of its grilled chicken offerings: the deal and some good press by Oprah Winfrey resulted in a savings frenzy of 4.5 million coupons - and 6.5 million rainchecks!
It wasn't just in the US. Newfound humility was seen in Dubai after the cash flow crisis late in 2009 which forced it to get a loan from neighbouring Abu Dhabi. In Europe, Iceland and Greece came dangerously close to an economic collapse and the exuberance of the EU and a strong Euro was more toned down.
Sadly, like economic shifts, human behaviour is also very cyclic. No sooner than gas prices started falling when folks started looking the other way from small cars and hybrid options. One hopes that the more lasting lessons from 2009 will continue to guide and shape people and economies in 2010 and beyond.
And there it is - the ten news items / events for 2009 globally I thought impacted people and economies to a large extent. 2010 seems to have started off on a much sunnier note - especially in India and we hope it does hold true for the rest of the year. Please email indecom@airtelmail.in with what you considered some of the main events in 2009 and how this list compares with yours.
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