The stock market globally is more elastic than people ever think. Just when you think things can't get any worse, prices can go lower and moods can be much darker. Global losses from stock market crashes have now exceeded $30 trillion, which is more than twice America's GDP. Sliding US housing prices have destroyed another $5 trillion in wealth, with housing prices still dropping in four out of five cities.
What is so shocking is the fact that not only is all of this unprecedented but also that the butchery happened in such a short time. As recently as last month, most of the pundits still held out hopes on a 'mild recession' and a 'soft landing,' but insteadthe downturn has been much more violent than almost anyone imagined.
The Dow Jones Index is presently hovering around what should be the bottom of its current trading channel. The scary part is that there aren't any apparent support levels once the 7500 levels are reached (just as this article in being written, President-elect Barack Obama has named Tim Geithner of the New York Federal Reserve as his next Treasury Secretary - an announcement that saw Dow gain 500 points to close around 8000). In fact, we wouldn't be surprised to see a rally back to 10,000. Just high enough (and long enough) for the average investor to believe that the danger has passed and that it's safe to go back into the water. Bear markets are like that, after all. The long term damage potential is frightening because corrections tend to be equal and opposite to the bubbles that preceded them.
The ultimate learning from all of this is to manage cash flows and increase safety nets. Most of us seemed to believe we could live beyond our means for ever. But that's no longer the case: in fact, the most recent quarter showed the biggest decline in consumer spending in 28 years. Everyone with any sense is now trying to build up their cash reserves, even if it means a lower standard of living. Saving money is getting very stylish these days as reducing debt.
As they say, in a bear market, the only winners are the ones who lose the least.
The most tech savvy president
After running a textbook presidential campaign that ranged form internet donations, videos on Facebook, online voter registration drives and multimedia email campaigns, it should have come as little surprise how quickly President-elect Barack Obama's transition team set up new operations on the Internet. The team launched its official website, www.hange.gov, within 24 hours of the 4 November elections. The website features a newsroom, a blog, a full agenda of the president-elect and a weekly YouTube video address to the nation. In doing so, it also introduced a new chapter on the role of technology in U.S. government.
Obama's election is, and his presidency will be, historic for many reasons. His adoption of the latest web and database technologies to engage the public - and his commitment to leveraging technology - promise to be among those reasons. Security reasons prevent a U.S. President from using the latest tech gadgets for day-to-day activities. Barack Obama is also expected to be the first president to use a laptop in the White House, possibly continue using this cell phone (at least to receive emails) and otherwise engage in technology tools.
Perhaps more important is Obama's plan to appoint a national chief technology officer (CTO) - unnamed at press time - and his science and technology agenda. The CTO, the first in the nation's history, would work with agency chief information officers and CTOs to share best practices, ensure network safety and evaluate new technologies, among other duties. Big name CEOs like Eric Schmidt of Google and Sam Palmisano (ex-IBM) have reportedly been considered for this.
In so many respects, it will be a CHANGE. And one hopes it will be for the better.
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