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INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIST
Cover Story

Investments on infrastructure through the remaining 40 months of the current Plan would shrink substantially. Total spend might come down to around $300 billion.
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Inklings

There was a recent report on Tamil Nadu turning down the proposal of the Indian Railways to build new rail lines after these have been mooted and analysed for their importance quite some years ago.
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Editor's Notes

When large contrac-tors shy away …
In our previous issue, I had written of an innovative scheme to transform sprawling slums into livable, multi-storied habitats by the involve-ment of the government and large property developers of Mumbai.
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Commentary

The (G-20) Summit in Washington on 15 November was a landmark event inasmuch as, for the first time, leading emerging economies came into their own as equal partners in shaping global economy and in reframing rules for the international financial markets.
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Macro Economics

Extreme illiquidity characterises the market for financial instruments such as bonds, both government and non-government.
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Banking

Only 24.5 per cent of the rural households in Puducherry had availed banking services. In the case of urban households it was 35.5 per cent. 33.6 per cent of the rural households do not own any assets...
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Nuclear Power

Robust planning is required in legislation, regulatory control, safety, safeguards... to support a large nuclear power programme for the public and private sectors.
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US Elections

India continues to witness domination of political families and is not throwing up charismatic young leaders who would command attention at the national level. Can we ever see the emergence of an Obama?
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US Economy

With the protracted downturn in the US economy, it is only a question of time before the bail-outs are extended to autos, airlines, retailers...
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International Diary

The stock market globally is more elastic than people ever think. Just when you think things can't get any worse, prices can go lower and moods can be much darker.
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Insurance

What has been the progress of the insurance sector since it was opened up for private competition some eight years ago?
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Space Research

India told the world that it was not just a nuclear power but also a cosmic power. The ISRO asserted on 14 Novem-ber, 2008 that it was no less capable than NASA and the ESA.
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Agriculture

Transformation of rocky, barren terrain into productive forms
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Analysis

On 17 September, Reliance Industries created history when it pumped oil from India's first deep-sea oilfield. Initially oil flowed at 5500 barrels per day;
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Opinion

Draw a line between Chandigarh and Chennai. Seven out of the eight IPL cricket teams are on the line or to the 'right' of this line.
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commentary- Pricing

Finance minister P Chidambaram made the eminently sensible suggestion to captains of industry to reduce consumer prices that will stimulate demand; help work to fuller capacity and steer through the current slowdown.
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Analysis - Exports

The global economic crisis has hit India where it hurts the most with over a dozen job-oriented export sectors slipping into disarray.
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Analysis - coal supply

Union ministries of coal and power are at loggerheads over the fuel supply pact, with the latter insisting on an assured 90 per cent coal supply under the commitment made by state-run Coal India Ltd.
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Capital Notes

 

Big projects in limbo

The global economic crisis triggered by the sub prime mortgage crisis (housing loan crisis) in the U.S. could stifle the growth of infrastructure in India. With credit hard to come by, investments needed for the infrastructure sector such as roads, ports, power projects, steel, cement and others could all be jeopardised as they all need influx of billions of dollars.
Project financing faces problems as interest rates soar. Banks are reluctant to lend even though the RBI has reduced the cash reserve ratio, CRR, ( that is the amount banks need to retain with themselves) and the statutory liquidity ratio SLR (the amount banks need to invest in Central government bonds and securities) to inject greater liquidity into the market.
The Indian government obviously cannot match China which is doling out a massive rescue package for infrastructure of $585 billion (about Rs. 30 lakh crore).
A 4000 MW project at Jharkhand has gone for a toss as the project financiers are hard put to raise the $ 4-5 billion required for the project. Half a dozen highway projects valued at $6 billion could face delays of as much as two years. While countries around the world are shutting down projects for lack of finance, India, which is on a growth path with an anticipated GDP growth rate 7 per cent, cannot afford to do so. India was expecting around $100 billion a year in investments for putting infrastructure on fast track. It now appears that only projects with big names as developers would get finance.


Another entrepreneur turns author...

Nandan Nilekani, co-founder, Infosys Technologies Ltd, is turning an author. His book Imagining India - Ideas for the new century, was launched in New Delhi on 24 November followed by launches in his home town Bengaluru and other metros. The book is slated for release in the United States, where Infosys has most of its software contracts, in early 2009. It would be Penguin's first Indian debut non-fiction work of an author. Nilekani would join the illustrious band of authors whose works Penguin has published in India - Nobel Laureates Amartaya Sen and Joseph Stiglitz, and Thomas Friedman, all economists, journalist Malcolm Gladwell, film maker Michael Moore, biologist Richard Dawkins….
Nilekani, who has been in the forefront of India's IT revolution, has the book divided into four parts. It dwells on globalisation and its effects, demographic trends and advantages India has the changing role of the entrepreneur and technology. The second part highlights the infrastructural challenges, the third looks at issues that confront political ideologies and the fourth, issues such as democracy, technology, health, pension and entitlements, energy and environment.


The deal of the year...

Japan's largest telephone company, NTT DoCoMo, has acquired a 26 per cent stake in Tata Teleservices Ltd (TTSL) making it one of the biggest telecom deals in the country this year. The Japanese firm is buying the stake at a whopping $2.7 billion (or about Rs 13,200 crore) to become the world's sixth global telecom giant to invest in an Indian telecom venture.
DoCoMo will get a hold in the Indian market, being billed as the second largest telecom market in the world particularly for mobile phones. The mobile penetration was just 51 million in 2004 and it is a staggering 270 million today. Some of the firms to have bought stakes in Indian companies before the Japanese company are: Telenor ASA, Emirates Telecommuni-cations Corp., (Etislaat), Telekom Malaysia Bhd and AFK Sistema.


Telenor scam will not scalp DMK minister

While media may be carrying on a campaign against the A Raja, minister of telecom & IT in the UPA cabinet, for the alleged bungling in the Telenor stake sale, it is going to be difficult for the opposition to scalp the minister. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has to suffer the infirmities of a loose coalition. The support of the DMK is essential for the survival of the UPA government and the DMK won the lucrative portfolio through hard bargaining.
What went wrong in the spectrum deal by which those involved in the Telenor deal benefited at government expense? Raja, telecom circles say, made a big mistake: He did not auction licences for mobile phone services and instead issued them on a loose first-come-first-served basis, a practise that was at least four years old. Companies were able to enter the sector paying a modest licence fee that was fair in 2004, when India had a cell phone penetration of just 51 million users. But in April 2008, when Spectrum or 3G services were allotted, India had 270 million registered subscribers for cell phone services. India has emerged as one of the biggest mobile phone markets with so many companies making a beeline for India.
The firms that got the licences on the basis of the 2004 fees were able to sell their stakes to foreign collaborators for many times the amount at which they originally bought them. With this episode, it has now become imperative for the government to overhaul the telecom policy.


TCS enters biomed market

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) , India's largest software firm in terms of revenue, is diversifying its investments. It is following a worldwide trend and investing in biomedical companies is entering medical genetic diagnostics, TCS one of the fastest growing sectors in bio medicine.
It will not only help develop products for companies such as Sequenom and Celera Genomics, TCS is mining the multiple genomic data bases of several California-based companies. It hopes to build a large revenue base as it feels life sciences sector would generate enough business.


Demand for more creeping acquisitions

With FIIs turning heavy sellers in the wake of the global financial crisis, promoters of Indian companies who have been buying shares from the secondary market, want the stock market regulator SEBI to raise the limit on creeping acquisitions by promoters to be raised to 10-15 per cent from the existing 5 per cent a year.
Promoters of Bharti Airtel, Mahindra and Mahindra, Essar, NDTV, Phoenix Mills, Dr Reddy's Labs, Asian Paints, Bajaj Holdings and Investments have all been buying shares in their own companies. The Tatas and Aditya Birla group have bought shares in their own rights issues. Many promoters had wooed foreign investors in 2007 when the stock markets witnessed bullish trends. But they have seen their stocks virtually roiled by the continuous sale by FIIs this year.

 
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