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INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIST
Cover Story

Investments on infrastructure through the remaining 40 months of the current Plan would shrink substantially. Total spend might come down to around $300 billion.
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Inklings

There was a recent report on Tamil Nadu turning down the proposal of the Indian Railways to build new rail lines after these have been mooted and analysed for their importance quite some years ago.
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Editor's Notes

When large contrac-tors shy away …
In our previous issue, I had written of an innovative scheme to transform sprawling slums into livable, multi-storied habitats by the involve-ment of the government and large property developers of Mumbai.
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Commentary

The (G-20) Summit in Washington on 15 November was a landmark event inasmuch as, for the first time, leading emerging economies came into their own as equal partners in shaping global economy and in reframing rules for the international financial markets.
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Macro Economics

Extreme illiquidity characterises the market for financial instruments such as bonds, both government and non-government.
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Banking

Only 24.5 per cent of the rural households in Puducherry had availed banking services. In the case of urban households it was 35.5 per cent. 33.6 per cent of the rural households do not own any assets...
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Nuclear Power

Robust planning is required in legislation, regulatory control, safety, safeguards... to support a large nuclear power programme for the public and private sectors.
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US Economy

With the protracted downturn in the US economy, it is only a question of time before the bail-outs are extended to autos, airlines, retailers...
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International Diary

The stock market globally is more elastic than people ever think. Just when you think things can't get any worse, prices can go lower and moods can be much darker.
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Insurance

What has been the progress of the insurance sector since it was opened up for private competition some eight years ago?
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Space Research

India told the world that it was not just a nuclear power but also a cosmic power. The ISRO asserted on 14 Novem-ber, 2008 that it was no less capable than NASA and the ESA.
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Agriculture

Transformation of rocky, barren terrain into productive forms
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Analysis

On 17 September, Reliance Industries created history when it pumped oil from India's first deep-sea oilfield. Initially oil flowed at 5500 barrels per day;
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Opinion

Draw a line between Chandigarh and Chennai. Seven out of the eight IPL cricket teams are on the line or to the 'right' of this line.
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commentary- Pricing

Finance minister P Chidambaram made the eminently sensible suggestion to captains of industry to reduce consumer prices that will stimulate demand; help work to fuller capacity and steer through the current slowdown.
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Analysis - Exports

The global economic crisis has hit India where it hurts the most with over a dozen job-oriented export sectors slipping into disarray.
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Capital Notes

The global economic crisis triggered by the sub prime mortgage crisis (housing loan crisis) in the U.S. could stifle the growth of infrastructure in India.
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Analysis - coal supply

Union ministries of coal and power are at loggerheads over the fuel supply pact, with the latter insisting on an assured 90 per cent coal supply under the commitment made by state-run Coal India Ltd.
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US Elections


A historic win with lessons for India

India continues to witness domination of political families and is not throwing up charismatic young leaders who would command attention at the national level. Can we ever see the emergence of an Obama?

I was in the US during March-April, 2007. Barack Obama had already surfaced as a serious candidate for US presidency. I remember the several features that appeared in The Chicago Tribune, other newspapers and magazines so assiduously publicised by his team managers.

Of course in the early stages the focus was on Obama winning the nomination of the Democratic Party over Hillary Clinton, who then appeared a more popular and more formidable opponent. One did not then hear much about John McCain.

The build up by the Obama team was methodic, thorough and relentless: Obama was here, Obama was there and Obama was everywhere.

Fund-raising was perfected into a fine art by Obama. Capturing the spirit and power of the internet, Team Obama focused on contributions from ordinary Americans and not so much on large donations from big corporates and other donors. Thus, small amounts like $5, $10 and $20 bulged into a massive and unprecedented collection of close to $650 billion (a humungous Rs.32,50,000 crore)!

I revisited the US during August-September, 2008, which marked the culmination of the extensive campaigns of the two principal candidates at their national conventions. Obama again scored a perfect 10 against McCain. The convention saw a record turnout of over 80,000 delegates and supporters. The speeches of senior democratic leaders, including Bill and Hillary Clinton and vice presidential candidate Joe Biden and of course that of Obama were electrifying. The delegates’ chant of ‘Yes, we can’ still resonates! Barring exceptional developments, Obama's victory seemed to have been sealed by then.

John McCain enjoyed support as a war veteran who underwent years of imprisonment during the Vietnam war. He also scored over his opponent in his grasp of foreign policy issues. McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as vice presidential candidate appeared sound in targeting women voters. For a while the fight appeared pretty tight.

Economic crisis dealt a decisive blow…

But the economic crisis worked against the Republicans: a succession of severe economic crises with leading institutions such as Bear Sterns, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers falling like nine pins made the current Bush administration even more unpopular and literally hoisted Obama onto the victory stand. The economic crisis of humungous dimensions was considered even worse than the Great Depression and the Republican administration struggl-ing to cope with this crisis further lent force to the anti-incumbency wave.

The Democrats had already learnt their lesson on losing the big fight between George W. Bush and Al Gore in the 2000 election. Al Gore won the popular votes but, by a curious quirk of fate, lost the election. The Obama camp did not want to take chances: thousands of supporters, notably leading lawyers (both Barack Obama and his wife Michelle Obama graduated from the Harvard Law School), volunteered to help registration of thousands of new voters and to keep vigil on possible invalidation of any of these. The voter turn out was thus high at around 65 per cent, a welcome contrast to the general apathy of the American voters.

Lack of Swadeshi spirit

The tasks for the new administration are by no means easy. Obama will have to take a large number of decisions that are not bound to be popular; chief among these will be an attempt to change the basic character of the average American to live beyond his means. With consumerism being so dominant, corporates and banks encourage American citizens to live on borrowed money and time. Savings rate has been dismal for decades. The composition of citizenry as a collection of immigrants also failed to instill in the average American a sense of nationalism so visible in the Germans, Japanese or Chinese. This single factor has been resulting in the average American preferring goods imported from any part of the world to those made in USA, purely on considerations of price. Such price is often an unrealistic, subsidized price fixed by nations ke1en to build their dollar earnings. This was also facilitated by American multinationals setting up shop in less developed countries making use of their cheap labour and bringing back the goods produced to the US. Thus, over decades, the trade balance of the US deteriorated and has reached a humungous $800 billion this year. Obama's priority should thus include setting right this huge imbalance.

Loss of markets…

Look at the progressive loss of market suffered by the US over vast sectors of production. Until about four decades ago a vast range of US products from aircraft to spacecraft, from automobiles and commercial vehicles to vast range of heavy earthmoving equipment and tractors, from basic steel to consumer electronic goods were exported across the globe. Until the advent of Airbus Industries in 1970s, US almost totally met the aircraft requirements of the world. Boeing, Lockheed and McDonald Douglas divided among themselves the entire global aircraft business. Large sized refrigerators and vast range of electrical items used to be supplied by American companies.

But progressively, US lost her dominance in product after product. The shifting of manufacturing base for electronic hardware dominated by the US until a couple of decades ago to the Asian countries was another big loss. High cost of labour also rendered the once thriving automobile industry unproductive and sick. The beneficial fallout of space and defence research for civilian applications that contributed to US pre-eminence in science and technology again appears to have been lost. Except in higher education, US seemto have lost much of its dominance in most other sectors.

Should turn protectionist…

There are many in India who argue the case for US continuing its policy of liberal outsourcing. I consider this suicidal for the US. This country has to turn protectionist notwithstanding the liberalism it preached so fervently for decades. Charity should begin at home. With unemployment growing rapidly and with the economy in tatters, US will have to look inward. It has to look closely at the mindless increase in compensation packages that have been contributing to increase in inequalities between the rich and the poor. There has been increasing clamour for lowering the cost of healthcare. This again is the result of the US insurance system mired in corruption and inefficiencies. Obama's attention will be needed substantially to set right these ills and make the health - care more affordable and more efficient.

The administration's energies will be demanded most in tackling the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and terrorism. Obama has already started well in appealing for consensus to work together to tackle this gigantic task. John McCain, in his dignified and graceful offer of congratulations to Obama conceding defeat, has indicated such a possibility.

I refer to Obama's thorough preparedness and meticulous planning and execution of his voter appeal strategy. Pramod Mahajan and Arun Jaitley effectively did this in the elections to the state assemblies of Rajasthan and MP in 2003. They took liberal recourse to the internet. Narendra Modi did this last year and built on this further making excellent use of messaging through cell phones. With the much wider reach of TV, Dravidian parties that made great use of the film media in 1960s today use this small screen even more effectively.

India continues to witness domination of political families and is not throwing up charismatic young leaders who would command attention at the national level. Can we ever see the emergence of an Obama?

 

 
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